Media statement - response to climate change story in The Weekend Australian (19 December 2009)

22 December 2009

There is strong scientific consensus, supported by a very large range of robust scientific research and fieldwork, that climate change is one of the greatest threats to coral reefs worldwide and we cannot underestimate the serious risk this poses for the Great Barrier Reef and the impacts that are already occurring.

Assertions to the contrary, such as those published in The Weekend Australian (19 December 2009), are concerning for the future of this great Australian icon and raise questions about the extent and validity of the research upon which such unreviewed public comments are based.

The recently released Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2009 drew on this extensive scientific knowledge base and has been peer reviewed by national and international scientific experts. This report is one of the most comprehensive, authoritative and contemporary publications on how climate change is impacting on the Reef. The issue of climate change impacts dominates most aspects of the outlook for the Reef's health in the future.

The Outlook Report clearly indicates the outlook for the Great Barrier Reef ecosystem is at a crossroad, and decisions made in the next few years are likely to determine its long-term future. This view is widely supported by both scientific information and on-the-ground research and observations.

In particular, the Outlook Report highlights the impacts from climate change that have already occurred and is unequivocal proof that this threat is real and immediate. The Outlook Report found all parts of the ecosystem are vulnerable to its increasing effects:

Coral reef habitats are the most vulnerable, but marine turtles and seabirds are also likely to be highly vulnerable.
Changes to the ecosystem because of climate change are likely to have serious implications for dependent industries and communities.
The average annual sea surface temperature on the Great Barrier Reef is likely to continue to rise over the coming century and could be as much as 1°C to 3°C warmer than the present average temperatures by 2100.
In the last decade there have been two severe mass coral bleaching events resulting from prolonged elevated sea temperatures. In addition, Great Barrier Reef waters are predicted to become more acidic with even relatively small increases in ocean acidity decreasing the capacity of corals to build skeletons and therefore create habitat for reef biodiversity in general.
Sea level on the Great Barrier Reef has already risen by approximately 3mm per year since 1991.
Changes in the climate also mean that weather events are likely to become more severe. Almost all Great Barrier Reef species and habitats will be affected by climate change, some seriously. The extent and persistence of the damage will depend to a large degree on the extent to which climate change is addressed worldwide and on the resilience of the ecosystem in the immediate future.

Coral bleaching continues to be among the most visual and compelling evidence of changes to the Great Barrier Reef and other reefs worldwide. In fact, the incidence and severity of mass coral bleaching events have increased over the last two decades, prompting leading coral reef researchers and managers to declare that coral reefs are in 'crisis'.

In addition, catchment runoff and associated water quality is identified in the Outlook Report as the second most significant pressure on the Great Barrier Reef and is expected to have significant compounding effects with climate change.

The Great Barrier Reef receives the runoff from 38 major catchments which drain 424 000 km² of coastal Queensland. Over the past 150 years sediment inflow onto the Great Barrier Reef has increased four to five times, and five to 10 fold for some catchments.

Inorganic nitrogen and phosphorous continue to enter the Great Barrier Reef at enhanced levels, two to five times for nitrogen and four to 10 times for phosphorous relative to pre-European settlement and pesticides are now being detected in inshore waters.

In light of this evidence, and indeed mounting evidence from around the world, it is misleading to suggest climate change is anything but a real and significant threat to coral reefs worldwide.