Outlook Online 2009

Greenhouse gas emissions trends

IPCC, 2007:

"Changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, land cover and solar radiation alter the energy balance of the climate system.

Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70 per cent between 1970 and 2004 (Figure SPM.3).

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important anthropogenic GHG. Its annual emissions grew by about 80 per cent between 1970 and 2004. The long-term trend of declining CO2 emissions per unit of energy supplied reversed after 2000.

Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane(CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years.

Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 (379ppm) and CH4 (1774ppb) in 2005 exceed by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years. Global increases in CO2 concentrations are due primarily to fossil fuel use, with land-use change providing another significant but smaller contribution. It is very likely that the observed increase in CH4 concentration is predominantly due to agriculture and fossil fuel use. CH4 growth rates have declined since the early 1990s, consistent with total emissions (sum of anthropogenic and natural sources) being nearly constant during this period. The increase in N2O concentration is primarily due to agriculture.

There is very high confidence that the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming.

Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. It is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent (except Antarctica)."

Figure SPM.3: (a) Global annual emissions of anthropogenic GHGs from 1970 to 2004. (b) Share of different anthropogenic GHGs in total emissions in 2004 in terms of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq). (c) Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2-eq. (Forestry includes deforestation).

Global GHG increases 


Citation and/or URL

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Climate change 2007 synthesis report. Summary for policymakers. IPCC Secretariat, Gland, Switzerland

IPCC. 2007. 'Chapter 2: Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing.' In: Climate Change 2007 - The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. (ISBN 978 0521 88009-1 Hardback; 978 0521 70596-7 Paperback)


Spatial Coverage

Global


Temporal Coverage

This volume is a compilation of information collected from  many sources and spanning many time frames.


Update Frequency

In accordance with its mandate and as reaffirmed in various decisions by the Panel, the IPCC prepares at regular intervals comprehensive Assessment Reports of scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of human induced climate change, potential impacts of climate change and options for mitigation and adaptation. Four Assessment Reports have been completed in 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007.


Other Information

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