Outlook Online 2009

Sea level rise

Lough., 2007:

"Observed
As global climate warms, sea level rises due to thermal expansion of the oceans and the contribution of additional water through the melting of mountain glaciers and continental ice sheets. As a result, global average sea level appears to be rising at a rate of 1 to 2mm per year.

The observed trend in sea level for Cape Ferguson, near Townsville, from September 1991 through May 2006 is 2.9mm per year.

Projected
If the observed acceleration in sea level rise continues to 2100, then global sea level would be 310 ± 30 mm higher than in 1990. This corresponds to the middle of the IPCC projected range of 180 to 590 mm of the IPCC by 2100 (Table SPM.1).

These ranges may however, be higher as the Greenland ice sheet appears to be melting faster than expected. There will also be regional variations in the magnitude of sea level rise due to local tectonic changes (though these are minimal in Australia), ocean circulation patterns and interannual variability modulated, for example, by ENSO events.

Continued sea level rise is a certainty and even if greenhouse gas emissions were halted at 2000 levels, sea level would continue to rise at about 10 cm per century due to thermal inertia of the climate system and ‘substantial long-term change may be impossible to avoid’."

IPCC, 2007:

Figure SPM.1 (b): Observed changes in global average sea level from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) data. All differences are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961-1990. Smoothed curves represent decadal averaged values while circles show yearly values. The shaded areas are the uncertainty intervals estimated from a comprehensive analysis of known uncertainties (Source IPCC SPM).

 IPCC Sea level rise figure

IPCC, 2007:

Table SPM.1: Projected global average surface warming and sea level rise at the end of the 21st century [for six IPCC emissions scenarios]. Note that 'The projections do not include uncertainties in climate-carbon cycle feedbacks nor the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow, therefore the upper values of the ranges are not to be considered upper bounds for sea level rise'.

Sea level and temperature projections


Citation and/or URL

Lough, J. 2007, Climate and climate change on the Great Barrier Reef,  In: Climate change and the Great Barrier Reef: a vulnerability assessment, eds J.E. Johnson & P.A. Marshall, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and Australian Greenhouse Office, Townsville, Australia, p. 15-74

IPCC SPM. 2007. Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report: Summary for Policymakers. An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 


Spatial Coverage

All of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park as well as adjacent catchments


Temporal Coverage

This volume is a compilation of information collected from  many sources and spanning many time frames


Update Frequency

Not applicable as this report is a compilation


Other Information

None

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