Smithers et al., 2007:

"Climate changes will prove difficult if not catastrophic for many organisms on the GBR. However, major geomorphologic features have repeatedly survived large climate changes in the past, and will endure into the future, but possibly in a modified state. The history of the GBR (and other reefs globally) demonstrates a remarkable capacity for adaptation to significant change, driven both by external and internal factors. Many of the likely responses of geomorphological features on the GBR are not simplistic and require an understanding of geomorphological history and processes, which for many parts of the GBR is incomplete. Reefs grow, mature and may potentially enter a decay phase as part of a natural cycle on longer than ecological scales. An appreciation of where in this cycle a particular reef is, and how observed changes relate to this, is critical to effective documentation and management of climate change impacts.

At shorter time scales, the intrinsic capacity of many geomorphological features on the coast to adapt to changes in the physical environment will confer some resilience, but this may wane if poorly understood thresholds are crossed under sustained climate change pressure. The remarkable morphological diversity developed by the major geomorphological features within the GBR provides a significant buffer against  catastrophic loss across the entire system. Nonetheless, parts of the GBR are vulnerable to global climate change not because of the changing climate alone, but because of additional stress factors - many of which relate to anthropogenic activities - that may lower the thresholds at which catastrophic change occurs. Some of these additional pressures, like reduced water quality, are local and regional issues that may be addressed by management at various government scales. Others, like ocean acidification, are global problems and will be far more challenging to overcome."

Figure 21.3: Key processes and potential impacts of predicted climate changes on coral reefs, reef islands and high islands