Lovelock and Ellison, 2007:

"Mangroves, salt marshes and salt flats are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise. Increases in sea level should lead to an increase in the area of mangroves, and migration of mangroves, salt marsh and salt flats upslope. This scenario is likely in areas of the GBR with high tidal ranges, where rainfall is predicted to increase and where there are no barriers to landward migration. Expansion of mangroves may be further enhanced with elevated CO₂, nutrient enrichment and warmer winter temperatures at southern latitudes. Reductions in area of mangroves, salt marsh and salt flats will occur in response to sea level rise if the soil surface elevation of the wetlands cannot keep pace with rising sea level. This is most likely to occur in areas with low tidal ranges, where rainfall is reduced, where sediment inputs are not sufficient to contribute to the maintenance of surface elevation and where groundwater depletion leads to subsidence of sediments. Additionally high temperatures, low humidity and more severe storms could also lead to reduced productivity, subsidence and erosion. The presence of human created barriers to landward migration of wetlands will have a significant negative impact on intertidal wetland cover."

Table 9.2: Outline of some of the major ecosystem services provided by mangroves and other wetlands within the GBR and the processes potentially impacted by climate change.

Figure 9.3: Effects of tidal range on the proportion of mangroves affected by rising sea level. With similar bathymetry a greater proportion of mangrove forest will be lost in settings with low (microtidal) compared to high (macrotidal) tidal ranges