McCook et al., 2007:

"4.2 Ecological resilience in the context of climate change
Human-induced climate change is a major threat to many ecosystems, including the GBR (see chapters 5–22). In simple terms, two management approaches can be taken to minimise these impacts: reduce the extent of the changes; and maximise the capacity of the system to resist, adapt to, or recover from, those impacts (Figure 4.3). Overall, addressing the cause of the problem (for example, by abatement of greenhouse gas emissions) is critically important and likely to be the most effective approach. It is also likely to be the most cost-effective strategy overall, because it will ameliorate impacts on a vast range of systems, both human and natural. However, such measures are beyond the scope of marine management agencies, and will not be sufficient alone. Because there will be long lag times in the reversal of current climate trends (decades to centuries), ongoing change is inevitable for the next several decades (Lough chapter 2).

Figure 4.3 shows that the effect of pressures on reefs (solid red line) is predicted to increase dramatically over the next century, due to climate change and other human impacts. As a result, ecosystem condition is likely to decline, along with the capacity to recover from those impacts. If the loss of resilience is sufficient, reefs may pass a threshold beyond which they do not recover, but remain in an alternate, degraded state (solid green line). There are two complementary strategies available to managers. First, and paramount, is to reduce climate change and other human pressures on reefs (dashed red line); in the case of climate change, this requires action at global scales, and is beyond the scope of marine management agencies. Second is to manage other sources of stresses or pressures on the reefs, so that the decline in resilience is reduced and the ecosystem has enhanced capacity to maintain itself or to recover, rather than pass the threshold. Action on this strategy – managing for resilience – is challenging but possible for marine management agencies.

In this context, it is critical to maximise the capacity of the GBR ecosystem, and the communities and industries that depend on it, to adapt to climate change. However, as numerous chapters in the current volume illustrate, for many taxa and ecosystems there is a lack of detailed scientific understanding of the impacts, and an even greater ignorance of how to address those impacts directly. This makes it very difficult to develop specific management strategies for climate change adaptation. It thus becomes increasingly critical to maximise the resilience or capacity of the ecosystem to cope with changes generally. Management for resilience is therefore not only a general strategy for protection, but an important part of responding to the impending threat of climate change.

It is important to emphasise that abatement and adaptation are necessarily complementary strategies. Managing for resilience is unlikely to provide sufficient protection for the biodiversity of the GBR; rather, it aims to slow and reduce the impacts sufficiently to allow natural adaptation and abatement of climate change to occur. Good management of marine ecosystems must not be seen as reducing the need for strong and urgent attention on a global scale to a problem of global magnitude."

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Citation and/or URL

McCook, L.J., Folke, C., Hughes, T., Nystrom, M., Obura, D. & Salm, R. 2007, Ecological resilience, climate change and the Great Barrier Reef. In: Climate change and the Great Barrier Reef: a vulnerability assessment, eds J.E. Johnson & P.A. Marshall, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and Australian Greenhouse Office, Townsville, Australia, 75-96

Spatial Coverage

 Great Barrier Reef

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