Cao and Caldeira, 2008:

"We use a coupled climate/carbon-cycle model to examine the consequences of stabilizing atmospheric CO₂ at different levels for ocean chemistry. Our simulations show the potential for major damage to at least some ocean ecosystems at atmospheric CO₂ stabilization levels as low as 450 ppm. Before the industrial revolution, more than 98% of corals reefs were surrounded by waters that were >3.5 times saturated with respect to their skeleton materials (aragonite). If atmospheric CO₂ is stabilized at 450 ppm only 8% of existing coral reefs will be surrounded by water with this saturation level. Also at this CO₂ level 7% of the ocean South of 60^oS will become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, and parts of the high latitude ocean will experience a decrease in pH by more than 0.2 units. Results presented here provide an independent and additional basis for choosing targets of atmospheric CO₂ stabilization levels".

  "Figure 1. Aragonite saturation state and coral reefs. (left) Maps of model-predicted aragonite saturation states at different atmospheric CO₂ stabilization concentrations (ppm) plotted over existing shallow-water coral reef locations (shown as magenta dots). (right) Percentage distribution of modern day coral reefs at each aragonite saturation bin under different atmospheric CO₂ stabilization concentrations. Aragonite saturation value at each reef location is interpolated from nearby open ocean values simulated by the model. Results are obtained by adding model-predicted perturbations in geochemical fields to modern observations, except for the Arctic Ocean where results are directly from model simulations as a result of the lack of observations."

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Citation and/or URL

Cao, L., and Caldeira, K., 2008, Atmospheric CO_² stabilization and ocean acidification, Geophysical Research Letters 35: L19609, doi:10.1029/2008GL035072.

Spatial Coverage

Global 

Temporal Coverage

 Modelled CO₂ levels, historical and projected

Update Frequency

 Not applicable 

Other Information

 None