GREAT BARRIER REEF
// Outlook Report 2014
assessment presented is high level. Several important broad assumptions were made in undertaking the assessment: • Each threat was initially assessed in isolation from others; compounding effects are discussed separately (Section 9.3.7) • Each threat was assumed to be possible at any geographic location within, or adjacent to, the Region • Threats were assessed as they are today (for example, current fishing catch amounts and techniques) or on the basis of documented trends (for example, trends in sea temperature and ocean acidification) • Threats were assessed with existing, but not any future, management measures in place. In ranking the consequence of a threat to the ecosystem, variations in the extent of its likely effect are taken into account by having different criteria for broad-scale and local-scale effects (see Appendix 6). For each threat, the higher consequence grade is adopted in determining the overall risk. For heritage values, definitions for consequence levels acknowledge variations in the extent of a threat’s likely effect by encapsulating into a single criterion both the geographic scale of effects and the range of heritage values affected (see Appendix 6).
9.2.3 Understanding community views
The structured risk assessment process also takes into consideration input from Reef scientists and community views on the risks to the Great Barrier Reef. These were canvassed during 2013 through a number of avenues: • As part of an Outlook scientific consensus workshop, 31 members of the Great Barrier Reef scientific community provided advice on likelihood and consequence for a supplied list of threats.7 • Respondents to national opinion survey were asked to rank a provided list of threats.
• Residents of the Great Barrier Reef catchment as well as members of the fishing sector and the tourism sector (both tourists and tourism operators) were surveyed regarding the three most serious threats.8 • Members of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority’s Local Marine Advisory Committees (32 respondents) as well as representatives of Reef Guardian councils (18 respondents) ranked a provided list of threats. • Teachers from Reef Guardian schools completed an online survey and identified the five threats people should be keeping an eye on within the next five years and 25 years. Responses up to November 2013 (54 schools) are included. The outcomes of these surveys are summarised in Section 9.3.2. Community views on risks to heritage values have not been surveyed.
Community views informed the risk assessment.
9.3 Outcomes of risk assessment
9.3.1 Level of likely risk